Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Apple Earnings due After the Bell!

Apple, Macbook, Notebook, Computer, Data

Apple will report earnings today after the market close. This is always a huge event, not only because Apple has almost a trillion dollar market cap and it is a part of the DOW 30, but because it also gives a good barometer on the affects of the trade and tariff war with China. Expectations have been muted for Q3 since Apple pre-warned earlier about softer sales coming out of China. Analyst estimates are for Apple to come in with $53.27B in revenue, and EPS of $2.18/share. That EPS expectation would be a decline of about 10% from LY, however the top and bottom line numbers will only be a part of this story. Investors will be looking for sales numbers from China, and to see if Apple is continuing is loss of share there.  With the trade commentary back and forth between countries this past year especially, Huawei has become the "patriotic" choice in China, which could lead to further price cuts for Apple. Apple had to cut prices this year to try to boost lagging sales in China even before some of the negative talk between countries was going on, so this will be a very important point to look at during the conference call. And of course services revenue will be the darling of the information drop today. Apple took a beating when they announced that they will no longer report on individual iPhone sales, and want to be seen as a services company. So this will be their first real test if that strategy is working. Apple announced a major services upgrade earlier this year when they launched news+, apple tv+, the apple card, etc, and some of these are not even available yet. If Apple misses their service number, or projects continued slowing growth in China, the stock might see a pullback. With all that said, Apple is still down over $25/share from its 52 week high, and expectations are not sky high for this quarter anyway, so there is a good chance Apple reports an upside surprise and the stock can continue is upward momentum as of late. Apple is my current largest holding.

TRADE NOTE:

I was able to pick up some of those VIX calls yesterday for $.40. The point of this trade is I am looking for some fast downward movement in order to capitalize on the volatility in the market. Remember the VIX is a volatility metric .If I just sit on these calls until expiration, then time decay will erode my value as each day passes without major moves. Ill keep you informed on the success of this trade.


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Monday, July 29, 2019

Wait and see mode for today

Futures point to a muted opening for the start of today’s market action. The FED kicks off their meeting tomorrow and I expect some major action after their decision. I have read firm after firm that will decide to adjust their positions or put money to work once we have clarification from the FED on the rest of the year, including myself and most likely many individual investors who want to make sure the FED will come through before taking money off the sidelines. I can’t remember a more important FED meeting in the last 10 years. The last time the FED switched directions and cut rates was 2008!

If the market heads up today, I’ll be looking to buy some calls on the VIC that I described in my last post as some protection against a market tumble..

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Friday, July 26, 2019

Nasdaq powers to new highs!



The bull has its eye on the Tech stocks! The Nasdaq has been on a roller-coaster this week, rebounding today with a HUGE 1.11% move to the upside.  Google skyrocketing over $109/share today after reporting record earnings!! The cloud stocks were also on fire today!  Atlassian shot up over $11.50/share or 8.5%, and OKTA was up almost $4/share. (note: I own shares in both cloud stocks above) Lots of action today, as Wall Street was back to focusing on earnings instead of worrying about the FED.

So next week is the big week in terms of waiting for Powell's move. Will the FED cut the 25 basis points that everything expects? Will they hold off and cause the markets to tumble? Will they cut 50 basis points and give growth a major boost, and light the stock market on fire at the same time. My gut instinct is that they will cut the 25 basis points that everyone expects, and hold steady with their language about being proactive instead of reactive in order to avoid a recession.

PROTECTION:

If you are concerned about the market tumbling next week, its always a prudent move to buy some protection on the downside just in case. Now one way to do this is to buy some puts on the Dow or S&P. You can make this play buy buying puts on the equivalent tracking stocks (DIA for the DOW, and SPY for the S&P) However, the way I plan to play this is to buy some calls on the VIX . The VIX is a volatility gauge of the market. The lower the VIX, the lower the implied risk is in the market. So when the market moved up, the VIX goes down, and visa-versa.  The AUG 21st expiration with a 19 strike are trading at 40 cents after todays move higher. To me this is a cheap way to buy some protection on the downside, considering the VIX can move significantly if the market turns. Basically what this means is that I need the VIX to be at 19.40 by 8/21 in order to break even. Trading options is not for the faint at heart, so if you don't have any money to put at risk, then this trade is not for you.

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GDP comes in at 2.1%

Slightly above the estimate, but not as slow as the market was anticipating. This was as close to in-line as you can get.The futures are holding strong for now.. they dropped about 30 points after the release. Lots of great earnings released before the market which is helping keep the futures up. McDonalds best estimates as well as Twitter this morning. This is going to be an interesting day!

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GDP today at 8:30am

The futures are pointing to a nice pop at the opening, up 80 points at 6:30ET, however everything is going to hinge on the Q2 GDP numbers when they get releases. I would say that futures meaning this morning is quite meaningless until that report hits. The estimates for GDP, which is gross domestic product, and basically measures the U.S. economy, is for 1.8% growth. This would be the weakest growth of the US economy in more then two years. There will be a hushed sense of anticipation when the number gets released, as this will be the last bit of economic data before the FED meets next week. If the growth rate is above 2% for Q2, it would mean that the economy is not slowing as much as anticipated, and will again worry investors and traders that the FED will not be as dovish as they need to be at their upcoming meeting. Remember that rate cut is already priced into the market, and it will be turmoil is the FED doesn't cut at this point. Hold tight everyone, and if you can watch that release at 8:30 to help determine how today will go.


INVESTING CALL:

Amazon is trading down slightly in premarket, after sliding in yesterdays tech tumble. Growth remains robust at 20% top line growth for a monster of a company like Amazon is, and that's amazing. They do and always have blown through cash to invest in their business. This time is was the investment in 1 day shipping. AWS is their cloud business, where they are market leaders, and it also their most profitable area of business, and that grew at a still healthy rate of 37%. Some traders will try to pick at anything that could be negative in yesterdays earnings release, but overall it looked good to me, and Amazon remains well positioned to dominate for years. I'd be picking up some more if it dips over the next few days. This already is one of my top long term positions.

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Thursday, July 25, 2019

The Market is CONFUSED!

This Way, Confuse, Where To Go, Way

Yesterday technology stocks ruled over Wall Street, today they are the dogs! The Nasdaq finished down 1%, while the Dow dropped almost 130 points. Why?? All because some numbers about the economy have been coming in stronger than expected over the last week or so. Today the Commerce Department released durable goods numbers for April and they showed that orders rose 2%, which is a strong number compared to the estimates. Add that to comments from Mario Draghi at the ECB, saying "there was not a significant risk of recession", and some traders are starting to question just how aggressive our FED will be when they meet next week.

FAIR WARNING: If the FED does not cut rates at their meeting, which ends July 31st, stocks will plummet. Investors are pricing in a 100% guarantee that we will get a rate cut, and you saw today what a little nervousness about that can do. If Powell and team decides to not cut and continue to "wait and see", expect mass slaughter. In the long run, if that happens, it will prove to be an amazing buying opportunity, which is why you should always have some cash on the sidelines ready to pull the trigger when needed.

EARNINGS!!

Shares of Google parent, Alphabet soared in after hours today after they crushed estimates! Shares traded almost $100/share higher in the after market.

Amazon came in a tad weaker in earnings, but beat the revenue estimates.  Shares were down roughly 1% in after hours.


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Dow down 200 points, Nasdaq gives up gains from yesterday!

Earnings season .. we are in the middle of the rollercoaster! Facebook reported last night after the bell, and while shares initially popped, currently shares are down over 2%.  Other big tech names like amazon and alphabet are both down over 1%, as worries set in about lower future growth. Tesla is getting destroyed after coming in way under estimates and the stock is down over 10%.

We started today is a great mood up until about 9am, when the EU made some comments about Europe ‘s economy being stronger than anticipated. This lead to worries that Europe won’t cut fast as fast as folks were hoping for. Dow futures were pointing to a 100 point gain this morning until the statements out of the EU, and then the market has been headed down since.

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Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Technology Stocks Roar Ahead!







Technology stocks and the Nasdaq composite shrugged off news of an antitrust probe by Attorney General Barr today and finished at all time highs! After initially falling on the news, there was a steady climb upward which kept the momentum all day long. What really helped boost the Nasdaq today was that the semi's were on fire thanks to better than expected quarterly results from Texas Instruments.  TXN shot up over 7.4% today bringing the rest of the semiconductors with them.

A "breakup" of the Big Tech names, Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet(Google), and Apple would send shock waves through the market, which is why we opened to the downside today after Barr announced his probe last night. However, the worries that anything would actually come of it faded as the day went on, as most firms commented that they expect the antitrust probe to fail.

If Big Tech can continue their rally, and continue their leadership in the market, we will be on track for continued gains as the market hits new highs. Earnings have been better then expected so far this earnings season, as over 75% of all companies that have reported so far, have beat their numbers, according to FactSet data.


TRADE UPDATE: NVDA

Well if you joined me in getting in on some NVDA when i first recommended it, you are doing some celebrating with me! I bought on 7/6 and since then NVDA is up $20/share!! With the news of a possible improvement in the China trade deal, and with great numbers out of TXN, I think NVDA still has a long way to go. It is up $20/share in the last 2 1/2 weeks to $178/share now, however it is still down over $100/share from it's all time high. This is a winner, and I'm not going to be selling anytime soon. Earnings get reported on 8/15, and trust me, it will be a huge day one way or the other for this stock.

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Saturday, July 20, 2019

Money Miser Designs


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Value stocks vs Growth Stocks Divergence

In my last post I described what Value Investing is, and it sounds like a great way to go right?? Find stocks that undervalued and have low P/E ratios, that usually pay dividends, Warren Buffet preaches value, it's got to be the best investment to put your money in right?




Here is a chart that shows just how much high p/e, high valuation growth stocks have outperformed value in the last 10 years. The S&P 500 Growth ETF is almost up 300%, while the S&P 500 Value ETF is up roughly half as much. Value has underperformed even the benchmark S&P 500 index over the last 10 years.

Value stocks now trade at all time low valuation, especially compared with growth stocks. We are currently reaching some lofty valuations in the entire market at approx. 21.5 forward p/e, which is nearing some of the all time highs. Does this mean that the market is due for a correction? Will growth stocks finally get crushed and will it result in a "flight to value"? At this point in the bull market, this answer to this lies in how the economy does. If global growth continues to slow, and the FED is unable to generate growth with its fiscal policy, then this would eventually lead to a recession, where investors will not pay incredibly high multiples for growth stocks any longer.

This does not mean that Value Investing is dead. It simply seems that you have to be more specific on the industries that you invest in. For my next post, we will take a deeper dive into the energy sector.

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Thursday, July 18, 2019

Value Investing



First of all, lets start by defining what Value Investing is. Here is a great description from Investopedia: Value investing is an investment strategy that involves picking stocks that appear to be trading for less than their intrinsic or book value. Value investors actively ferret out stocks they think the stock market is underestimating. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, resulting in stock price movements that do not correspond to a company's long-term fundamentals. The overreaction offers an opportunity to profit by buying stocks at discounted prices—on sale.



As I stated in yesterday's post , Warren Buffet is the best known value investor today. His process of finding companies that are basically "on sale" , buying shares, and holding on to them for the LONG TERM, has given him an astonishing 20.9% annual return since 1965. That's over 50 years of 20%+ returns! 


And if you have ever heard of the term, "flight to value" when you are watching financial news or read it in the paper, that refers to inventors leaving high risk high growth companies and instead putting their money in a safer bet, which would be value stocks. This talk usually occurs when the market is breaking out to all time highs, and investors are getting nervous about lofty valuations. When this happens, investors tend to take their profits in some of the high flyers and put that money to work in stocks that are undervalued and usually tend to perform better when the market is headed down. So the relationship works like this, when the market is on the upswing, growth stocks tend to outperform value, and then the opposite is true, when the market is on the downswing, value tends to outperform growth.


Which sectors are usually considered Value sectors?

Typically sectors like: Energy, Financial Services, Industrials, Materials, Utilities, and Healthcare would be considered value sectors, meaning their stocks have lower p/e ratios, and usually pay dividends as well. 


I will discuss an upcoming divergence in these areas vs. the total market in my next post. Are these stocks ready for a bounce?


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Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Warren Buffet's Portfolio

Warren Buffet is the most successful investor of all time. Books have been written and movies have been made about him and his value approach to investing which he based on his own mentor: Benjamin Graham. I will be focusing on getting back to value stocks in my upcoming posts, so to kick it off here is a list of Buffet's current investments with his holding company Berkshire Hathaway:

SymbolHoldingsMkt. priceValueStake
TOTAL   $211,161,582,048 
Apple Inc.AAPL249,589,329$204.50$51,041,017,7815.4%

BAC896,167,600$28.99$25,979,898,7249.4%

KO400,000,000$52.14$20,856,000,0009.4%

AXP151,610,700$128.06$19,415,266,24218.2%

WFC409,803,773$45.30$18,564,110,9179.1%

KHC325,634,818$30.32$9,873,247,68226.7%

USB129,308,831$53.04$6,858,540,3968.1%

JPM59,514,932$115.12$6,851,358,9721.8%

MCO24,669,778$204.98$5,056,811,09413.0%

DAL70,910,456$63.16$4,478,704,40110.8%

GS18,353,635$215.52$3,955,575,4155.0%

BK80,937,250$43.11$3,489,204,8488.5%

LUV53,649,213$53.28$2,858,430,0699.9%

GM72,269,696$39.43$2,849,594,1135.1%

VRSN12,952,745$217.54$2,817,740,14710.9%

CHTR5,710,711$414.84$2,369,031,3512.6%

DVA38,565,570$57.70$2,225,233,38923.2%

UAL21,938,642$93.92$2,060,477,2578.3%

V10,562,460$179.31$1,893,954,7030.5%

AAL43,700,000$34.22$1,495,414,0009.8%

MA4,934,756$276.62$1,365,052,2050.5%

LSXMK31,090,985$40.00$1,243,639,40015.0%

COST4,333,363$280.65$1,216,158,3261.0%

PNC8,671,054$138.76$1,203,195,4531.9%

AMZN483,300$2,009.90$971,384,6700.1%

RHT5,110,471$187.71$959,286,5112.9%

TRV5,958,391$154.59$921,107,6652.3%

MTB5,382,040$171.11$920,920,8643.9%

SIRI137,915,729$6.05$834,390,1603.0%

SYF20,803,000$36.03$749,532,0903.0%

AXTA24,264,000$30.67$744,176,88010.3%

STOR18,621,674$33.92$631,647,1828.2%

QSR8,438,225$72.00$607,552,2001.8%

LSXMA14,860,360$39.79$591,293,72414.4%

TMK6,353,727$91.91$583,971,0495.8%

PSX5,552,715$101.38$562,934,2471.2%

LBTYA19,791,000$26.11$516,743,0109.6%

STNE14,166,748$34.01$481,811,0994.8%

TEVA43,249,295$8.20$354,644,2194.2%

SU10,758,000$31.56$339,522,4800.7%

LBTYK7,346,968$25.50$187,347,6841.4%

LILA2,714,854$16.98$46,098,2215.4%

JNJ327,100$132.50$43,340,7500.0%

PG315,400$115.89$36,551,7060.0%

MDLZ578,000$54.77$31,657,0600.0%

LILAK1,284,020$16.93$21,738,4591.0%

UPS59,400$105.61$6,273,2340.0%

Holdings are as of March 31, 2019 as reported in Berkshire Hathaway's 13F filing on May 15, 2019.

This info is from a great portfolio tracker at CNBC.com which you can find here.


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Monday, July 15, 2019

The Bulls are in charge!!

Bull, Statue, Symbol, Animal, Finance

The bulls are firmly in charge on Wall Street! The Markets are at all time highs and it seems like there isn't any news that can slow it down (barring maybe a tweet) The earnings season is here, and Citigroup kicked it off today, and beat on the top and bottom. A good way to start for sure. The rest of the big banks report later in the week. As I said yesterday, the guides for this season are so low, that we have the potential to surprise on the upside, which will be another catalyst to send us to more highs!

Now when the earnings come in, the more important information happens during the earnings calls. This is when the guidance gets announced, and we learn more about the story of the quarter and what to expect next. If you are tracking a stock that you want to buy, make sure you don't jump the gun... be patient and listen to the earnings call, then make your move.

OK time for Trade talk!

I spoke in a prior post about Dollar Cost Averaging I put this to work on Friday. I bought shares of Slack Technologies  for a trade when they went public on 6/20 for $39.00. The stock continued to sell off, and was down over 12% for me, and then on Friday, I doubled down and bought more at $33.75. So what that did was lower my average cost of the trade, and then today the stock pops 3%. So on Thursday I'm down 12%, and today I'm still down but only 4.6%. Slack is a market leader, and a well run company with great future prospects. Both Barclays and Stephens initiated coverage on Slack as overweight in the last few days. The Stephens call was what prompted me to double down on Friday.

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Sunday, July 14, 2019

Earning Season is Here!!!!!

So now that we got the Powell testimony out of the way and he made statements alluding to the fact that a rate cut is in the cards, the market took off!! Over 200 points on back to back days! However, is seemed strange didn’t it? On Thursday the nasdaq was down and then on Friday even though it was up, the huge moving growth stocks (cloud stocks) got whacked! All while the market was up 400 points! What gives?? Seems to be a little rotation was going on and repositioning over the last two days.. Techs in general did not do well Thursday and Friday while the traditional consumer stocks and industrials did amazing. Sometimes when this happens it makes me nervous.. when the leaders (big tech) do not participate in rallies, it could spell trouble.

So now for the next two weeks until the FED meeting, all eyes will be on earnings. Is the economy slowing down? Will numbers disappoint? Overall earnings are expected to be down 2% YoY, so we already kinda have bad numbers baked in.. if we get strong earnings and the FED still cuts rates on the 31st, and then MAYBE a trade deal on top of that?? Dow 30,000 here we come!

Trade Note:

I was able to buy NVDA on two more occasions since my last post, and then BOOM it’s up almost $9/share in the last few days! More to come with this one! If we get a pull back I’m gonna definitely load of the truck even more because I wasn’t done buying yet!!


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New Shop is up!


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Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Powell talks start!

The futures point to a lower open as Wall Street seems anxious about what FED chairman Jerome Powell will say today as he kicks off his two day testimony about the economy. As I said before, the markets have already priced in at least two rate cuts for 2019, starting with the July meeting, and if Powell says anything that might be seen as not as dovish, the markets are going to get hit hard. Today and tomorrow are all about what he says. If Powell convinces Wall Street that they are right and cuts are coming this year, the markets will go up, if not, they will head down, simple as that.. he controls these next two days.

Trade note:

I was able to pick up some additional shares of NVDA yesterday for around 156/share! I’m hoping is continues to tread a bit lower here, and then I will be able to buy the rest in the low 150’s like I originally wanted..

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Saturday, July 6, 2019

Market Pullback






Well the jobs data did come in stronger than anticipated, and what happened? the market dropped. The market was down over 200 points early on! However, the recovery later on in the day was a beautiful thing. Like I said with the low volume, that could have gotten real bad quickly, however to only finish down about 40 points shows that there is some underlying strength in this market. Consensus is that the FED will still cut rates at their meeting on July 30-31st, but only a 25 basis point cut, and its being worded as an "insurance cut". So what I've noticed over the last day, is that the language that people are using has turned to not, "We need rate cuts to keep from falling into a recession", to "We need a rate cut to continue the booming economy." Very subtle changes in tone, while one focuses on the pending collapse of our expansive economy, the other is focused on making sure it goes as long as possible. In the long run, having a booming jobs market is a great thing as long as inflation is kept in check, and I'm in agreement with everyone else out there, that I believe the FED should cut rates at their next meeting. I'm not confident we will get multiple rate cuts this year unless things drastically change, but in my opinion one "insurance cut" will give the market the confidence that the FED is going to help out if needed, and that will do wonders for investors.

Now the other major piece of news hanging over the market since MAY has been the ongoing trade war with China. It sounds like we are at least talking again, however, pure speculation here: I do not think we will get a trade deal announced before that FED July meeting based on politics alone. If the trade war is not causing economic pains anymore with a  deal reached soon, I think the FED would have a more of a wait and see reaction at the next meeting instead of a cut. So I think this plays out, FED cuts a quarter point in July, Trade deal will be announced later in the summer. Then that sets us up perfectly for a smooth finish until the end of the year.

TRADE NOTE:

I was able to grab my first initial purchase of NVDA yesterday. At the low of the day it was down over $4 again, mainly because Samsung reported some bad news on chip demand, plus the overall market was heading lower, so it presented a nice opportunity to establish an entry point. One of the best pieces of advice I was given in regards to an INVESTMENT (which is what  NVDA will be for me) is that you do not have to purchase everything all at once. If I want to get to a certain point, say 100 shares, and I think anything under $158/share is a good buying opportunity, you can start buying it over days or weeks or even in some circumstances, months. This is commonly known as dollar cost averaging, when you set up monthly automatic purchases of a mutual fund for instance. However the same principle works for stocks as well. This has served me well over the years and has allowed me to piece of mind while I look to establish long term positions.

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Friday, July 5, 2019

Jobs report 8:30am 7/5

futures are currently down 40 points for the Dow, but this will swing once the report gets released. Again the market is looking to cement the fact that the FED will cut rates at their meeting this month. If the jobs report is strong and over projection, expect the market to cool off abit today. Typically days like this in between holidays are low volume too, so if selling happens it could get pretty steep since a lot of the institutional buyers are not playing today. And of course the opposite can happen too, if the report shows a slowing economy, expect to see the futures turn positive.. let’s see what today brings..

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Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ at record highs!

Well the payrolls came in under expectations and so did the unemployment number! Bad news right? Means the economy might be slowing down? Market probably did bad of course??! Well think again! We are in a time now where the market wants bad news on the economy because that means the FED will lower rates. So how did the market react to this news? The Dow skyrocketed up 179 points, with the S&P and NASDAQ also shooting to record highs.

So wait let me get this straight?

Bad news is good news?? You bet cha! Right now any news that would show that the economy might be slowing is exactly what Wall Street wants to hear, so we get lower rates.


Ok here it is: Today’s Call:

Netflix might be primed to hit back at old highs! Full disclosure, I sold the majority of my Netflix in the low 400’s, but I still hold a position in the stock. It’s been in a range for a long time, and it took a major hit when Disney announced their own streaming service, however the stock has been performing well in the last few weeks! Today’s move back above $380 is a great sign, and with earnings coming out on 7/17, I’m gonna be a buyer before earnings. This stock is known to have huge moves on earnings releases and if they surprise to the upside, I’m thinking $400 is the next stop for this!

7/3 futures point to 80 point gain at the open

Looks like another strong start to the market today, but keep your eye on the economic data out this morning. Payrolls get reported at 8:15 and jobs data at 8:30. These numbers can influence the market quite a bit since they can help gauge whether or not the FED would be dovish or hawkish. Remember the market has ALREADY priced in 4 rate cuts in the next year. If the data doesn’t point that way, market might turn quickly.

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Tuesday, July 2, 2019

S&P at a record high!! Are you bullish or bearish??





Ok people, we are at an all time closing high on the S&P! Are you worried? Are you taking some money off the table, or are you letting it ride? When you read one article about the S&P going to 3250, and then the article right after that says stocks are overvalued, there are too many headwinds (FED and Trade Wars), and we are due for a 10% pullback, what do you do??? How do you make sense of it all?

First off, always remember your strategy, and remember your reason why you put your money somewhere to begin with. Is it a trade or an investment? If it's a trade, all this noise will mean a lot more to you. If its an investment and you are in it for the long haul, the short term noise is just that, noise. I can tell you that for me, I have both strategies in play. I have investments that I plan to keep for the long haul, like Apple, Home Depot, Amazon, Disney, and Salesforce. I also had trades that I will sell when I feel like the trade is either topped out, or the reasons why I bought in the first place have changed. As I mentioned in my last post, I'm looking at getting into a view more stocks, however I'm waiting on a slight pullback for all of them before I jump in.

Alright here it is:

My Call of the day!

I can tell you that as far am I'm concerned, I love the fact that NVDA was down almost $4 today. If NVDA falls into the low 150's I'm going in! I think the pain in this stock is priced in. They did have a huge bounce lately, however they are still down from $292/share from last October. This stock was crushed, and now that the whole crypto mining business has been eliminated, they have great exposure to some of the best high growth areas, like AI, Gaming, and autonomous vehicles.

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Hi there

 Soooo what’s up?