Apple will report earnings today after the market close. This is always a huge event, not only because Apple has almost a trillion dollar market cap and it is a part of the DOW 30, but because it also gives a good barometer on the affects of the trade and tariff war with China. Expectations have been muted for Q3 since Apple pre-warned earlier about softer sales coming out of China. Analyst estimates are for Apple to come in with $53.27B in revenue, and EPS of $2.18/share. That EPS expectation would be a decline of about 10% from LY, however the top and bottom line numbers will only be a part of this story. Investors will be looking for sales numbers from China, and to see if Apple is continuing is loss of share there. With the trade commentary back and forth between countries this past year especially, Huawei has become the "patriotic" choice in China, which could lead to further price cuts for Apple. Apple had to cut prices this year to try to boost lagging sales in China even before some of the negative talk between countries was going on, so this will be a very important point to look at during the conference call. And of course services revenue will be the darling of the information drop today. Apple took a beating when they announced that they will no longer report on individual iPhone sales, and want to be seen as a services company. So this will be their first real test if that strategy is working. Apple announced a major services upgrade earlier this year when they launched news+, apple tv+, the apple card, etc, and some of these are not even available yet. If Apple misses their service number, or projects continued slowing growth in China, the stock might see a pullback. With all that said, Apple is still down over $25/share from its 52 week high, and expectations are not sky high for this quarter anyway, so there is a good chance Apple reports an upside surprise and the stock can continue is upward momentum as of late. Apple is my current largest holding.
TRADE NOTE:
I was able to pick up some of those VIX calls yesterday for $.40. The point of this trade is I am looking for some fast downward movement in order to capitalize on the volatility in the market. Remember the VIX is a volatility metric .If I just sit on these calls until expiration, then time decay will erode my value as each day passes without major moves. Ill keep you informed on the success of this trade.
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